–Jan Durable Goods Orders -4.0%; Ex-Transportation -3.2% as Q1 Slows
–Ex Defense -4.5%; Civ Aircraft Orders -19% as Boeing Orders Lag
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The January durable goods data show more slowing
than expected.
January durables orders decline by 4.0% for the first drop in four
months and the biggest drop since January 2009. December durables were
revised to +3.2%.
Orders were down 3.2% excluding transport and -4.5% ex-defense,
confirming weakness in this notoriously volatile data series.
Boeing Corp. reported 150 new orders after 287 in December, and the
Commerce Department reported a 19% drop for new civilian aircraft orders
as seasonal adjustment tempered the move.
There was widespread weakness in orders reflected in -6.7% primary
metals, -10.4% machinery, and -1.9% in electronics. Motor vehicles
printed -5.0%.
Core orders usually fall in the first month of each quarter (they
were -3.7% in our measure), so some will discount this result. But this
report shows more widespread weakness.
Shipments rose 0.4%, and Inventories +0.7%. Nondefense capital
goods shipments fell by 0.9% in a weak start to Q1 capital spending. The
combination of slower key shipments and rising inventory is a sign of
slowdown if it is sustained.
Nondefense capital goods orders ex-aircraft were down 4.5% in their
weakest showing since -4.8% in January 2011. Nondefense capital goods
shipments ex-aircraft fell 3.1%.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121 **
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