–AHE -0.1% to +1.8% YOY; Census Effect Was +48k NSA Jobs
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The March employment data show temporary Census
and weather-rebound effects, but also show Q1 marked an inflection point
for a steady jobs market.
March payrolls printed close to expectations at +162,000. This was
related to Census hiring which were pegged at +48,000 before seasonal
adjustment, and to weather’s unknown boost after storms in February.
The latter effect was perhaps +100,000.
The data show underlying job growth has turned modestly positive,
marking an inflection in the economy. January-February payrolls were
revised by +62,000 in total.
Thus, we already knew that jobs had steadied and the question
remains when the recovery will turn to hiring. (After revision, the
first positive jobs print in the current cycle was in November 2008.) In
the three prior cycles there were “jobless recoveries” for periods of up
to two years after the economy turned.
Private payrolls were +123,000 in March, versus +8,000 in February.
Hours rose (another weather effect) but Average Hourly Earnings
printed -0.1% for +1.8% over the year. These suggest modest production
gains with low inflation.
March payrolls included: manufacturing +17,000, construction
+15,000, retail +14,900, leisure +22,000, temporary help +40,000, health
+27,000; losses were in information at -12,000 and finance at -21,000.
Federal government jobs excluding the postal service were +51,300
(seasonally adjusted).
Details: Payrolls/Prior AHE,yoy Agg Hrs Civ Unempl Rt/Unrnd
Mar +162k —- +1.8% 98.4 9.7% (9.7492%)
Feb -14k -36k —– 97.7r 9.7% (9.6872%)
Jan +14k -26k —– 98.2 9.7% (9.6866%)
** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MAUDS$,MT$$$$,MAUDR$]
