–Ex Defense +1.7%; Civ Aircraft Orders +6% as Boeing Orders Jump 58%
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The February durable goods data show an erratic
sideways trend overall but a rebound from the January dip.
February durables orders printed +2.2%. Also, orders printed +1.6%
excluding transportation and +1.7% ex defense, in the expected rebound
from January’s first-month-of-the-quarter dip (now -3.6% overall after
revisions).
Boeing Corp. had 237 new orders, compared to 150 in January, and
the Commerce Department reported +6% for new civilian aircraft orders.
Motor vehicle orders also posted +1.6% as unit sales gained.
The rebound elsewhere in orders was widespread: computers printed
+2.7% in their best gain since December 2010, primary metals +1.3% and
machinery +5.7%. An exception was electronics at -2.5% in a third drop.
Core orders advanced 1.4% in our measure, also confirming
advancing factory business.
Shipments fell 0.4%, but overall inventories were up 0.4%.
Nondefense capital goods shipments printed +0.5% but after a
revised -1% in January, so this still represents a weak two-month start
to Q1 capital spending.
Defense capital goods orders, which took a dip at the end of 2011
as Mideast spending was cut, have rebounded. They are up 12.4% in
February after printing +23.2% in January.
A bottom line is that on average January and February overall
orders remain under the December level, so the erratic recent trend in
this series remains sideways. December levels possibly could have been
boosted by more generous tax depreciation schedules that expired at the
end of 2011, but the lead time to get durable goods into the production
process suggests this effect was probably minimal late in the year. This
indicates some minimal real slowing in factory output.
**Market News International Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121**
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MU$$$$,M$$FI$,MT$$$$,MAUDS$]
