I posted Daiwa's thoughts on the Greek proposals & the path from here earlier .... expressing (very) cautious optimism
ANZ have provided a research note for clients also.
Its detailed and comprehensive, as, as you'd expect from ANZ, but in brief:
- The bailout proposal includes the acceptance of austerity measures worth roughly EUR13bn and asks for EUR50bn in additional funding. As a comparison, the proposal rejected by the Greek referendum last Sunday was worth EUR8bn in austerity reforms.
- Meanwhile, some EU officials are said to be open to debt relief (eg greater flexibility in repayment and/or lower interest rates).
- The clear aim is to try and keep Greece in the euro
ANZ express cautious optimism, but say plans are in place for a Grexit if no agreement can be reached ... they expect those plans to be published Sunday, if that's what it comes to.
If it is a Grexit, ANZ warn of:
- There will probably be heightened demand for traditional safe havens, US treasuries, bunds, CHF, JPY, etc.
- Central banks will make whatever liquidity available necessary, and will focus on the impact such a development may have on global financial markets and their own economies
- Peripheral euro area spreads should widen and stock markets weaken
- The euro may weaken
