The latest data from Arizona public health

  • Cases rose 3.4% yesterday and 3.6% today (7-day average of 4.5%)
  • PCR tests 10,932 vs 13,459 yesterday
  • Positivity near 30% vs approx 24% yesterday
  • Record 117 new deaths vs 1 reported yesterday
  • Deaths up 6.1% day-on-day (this looks like a backlog at first blush)

On the raw data, the % positive is 33.4% but if you strip out a few serontology positive tests (there were only 486 yesterday), then it's a tad lower. In any case, that's a shockingly-high number. Anything over 20% is far too high.

Expect tests to rebound to close to 20,000 in the days ahead. If so and the % positive holds up, we'll blow away the record of 4877 reported last week.

The stock market likes this headline but it's a mistake.