Big jump in the current estimate

The Atlanta FedGDPNow estimate has risen to 4.4% from 3.8% last. In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on September 14, up from 3.8 percent on September 11. The nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.7 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

The next estimate will be on September 19th.

Meanwhile, the NY Fed GDP Nowcast estimate for the 3Q is at odds with their southern district. Today they released their estimate and it came in at a more subdued 2.2%.

Below is the impact of the releases this week:

Other estiimates show:

  • Goldman moves their tracker to 3.3% from 3.2%
  • Barclays moves to 3.2% from 3.0%