The AUDJPY received a better China PMI Flash estimate last night but the move higher failed to impress and the price moved lower. Later in the NY session the price moved to test the overnight high, and failed again. That, and a declining stock market in the US, has led to a move out of risk including the AUDJPY.
The price reached at new month low in the last hour of trading (lowest level since June 29th). The prior month low was 80.035 (July 12th -this is the first minor resistance level now). The price is also below the low from yesterday at the 80.13 level. The 38.2% of the move down today currently comes in at 80.16 (and moving lower with each new low), the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at 80.21 (see yellow area in 5 minute chart)
With the increase bearish bias developed today, shorts will likely use this area (80.13/21) as topside resistance (stops and new longs on a move above the 80.21. This is also the low from the London session).
The next key target below comes in at the 79.326 level. This level is the 38.2% of the move up from the June 1 low. This level is also near lows from the end of June (low point was 79.30).
Tonight, the Apple earnings shortly after 4 PM could have an influence on the market (proxy for stock market tomorrow). Also in Australia, they will release inflation numbers for the 2Q with expectations of 0.6% QoQ and 1.3% YoY (vs 1.6% last quarter). The price will tell the market’s story. The bias is down but any pair with AUD has been down before, only to rally back higher. Nevertheless, the technical story has gotten more bearish today, so follow the bias.
