The AUDJPY has been trending to the downside today and in the process fell below key support at the 100 and 200 hour MAs and some pretty good trend line support off the hourly chart. Looking at the daily chart, the price is also moving away from key levels including the 50% of the move down from the 2012 high to low range (at 81.529) and the 200 day MA at the 80.75 level. Needless to say, the sellers are back in control. Weakness in the USDJPY and AUDUSD are helping the bearish cause (or is the AUDJPY contributing to the AUDUSD and USDJPY weakness?)
The next key target on the downside is the 38.2% of the move up from the June move higher. That level comes in at the 78.84 level. The level also corresponds with the low from June 15th (just prior to the last surge to the topside). If the bearishness should pick up some speed on additional liquidation, this level should slow the decline on the 1st test at least.
On the topside now, the sellers have stepped the price down, holding below topside trend lines and keeping the corrections below 38.2% -50% retracement levels on the intermediate legs down. Until the buyers can prove they can take back some control, the bears and the trend will continue. Currently I will be eyeing the 79.528-596 as close resistance (38.2-50% of the last leg down). If the price can not get above this minimum target, the sellers remain in full control. In addition to the 78.84 target from the hourly chart (38.2% of the June move higher), the 79.12 is channel trend line support from the 5 minute chart.
