Lower than expected retail sales (+0.2% against expectations of +0.4%) saw another peek below 1.0200 but the pair’s since attempted a stuttering rally aided by a slip back in EUR/AUD from earlier highs around 1.2680. There’s been some suggestion that the fall in the cross could be some down to SNB redistribution of euros, but i can’t confirm this at the moment.
AUD/USD’s hit a recent day’s high of 1.0237, and a break back up through the 100 day MA at 1.0233 could spark a round of stop loss buying back through 1.0240 towards the Ichimoku cloud base at 1.0292 and the Oct 1 low of 1.0326 … that would suit me nicely after Gerry’s latest poll..
If you’re an Elliott wave surfer (i’m not), apparently there is a bullish scenario building again in AUD/USD and the earlier sell after the sales data off did little more than trigger a few soft sell stops through 1.0200 before finding buyers in the 1.0180/00 region.
There are possible sell stops below 1.0180 but also talk now of very large option barriers at 1.0150 and 1.0100 just below the 1.0165 lows of Sept 5 which will no doubt be heavily defended..
AUD’s at 1.0222 with the EUR/AUD around 1.2642,
