The AUDUSD has been tracking the 100 and 200 bar MA as it marches down in a channel on the intraday 5 minute chart. The 100 bar MA was tested in the last hour and held. The current level comes in at 1.04034 (blue line in the chart above). The 200 bar MA comes in at 1.0418 (green line). Channel trend line dissects the two guiding lines at the 1.0410 currently. Bears remain in control if the price stays below these lines today. A move above and further corrective action can be anticipated.
Taking a broader look, the price has moved to the lowest level since July 26th today (see daily chart below). The high today at 1.0443 was equal to the high from mid July and low area from early August. This may have given the sellers added confidence today. The pair has been been the crowd favorite since early June rising from a low of 0.9579 to the August high of 1.0612. However, risk of further global slowdown and a move higher in the EURAUD has started to pressure the pair over the last few weeks.
Hurting the technical picture is that trend line support from the June low has been breach. The price has a flatter trend line support at the 1.0383 level which seems to be providing support today (low reached 1.0377 but rebounded). A break below this level will be needed to open the downside for further selling today. The 200 day MA at the 1.0298 level is the next major target for the pair on the downside. The 38.2% of the trend move higher comes in at 1.02177 and the 100 day MA is at 1.02038. It was less than a month ago that prices were at these levels so they are doable should momentum accelerate (getting below 1.0383 would be the next step).
For today watch for resistance on rallies against the aforementioned MA lines and trend line on the 5 minute chart. On the downside, look for momentum on a break of the trend line at 1.0383 for selling clues.
