The AUDUSD has enjoyed a nice move higher over the last 7 days. That move has taken the price above broken trend line resistance at 1.0079 (from June 2010 low connecting to October 2010 low), downward sloping trading (at 1.0142), but has found sellers against the 50% of the move down from the 2012 high to the 2012 low (at 1.02168/ high reached 1.0209). I guess it is appropriate to stop at the average before the FOMC decision.
The range for the day is a modest 44 pips. The average range over the last 20 days is 114 pips, so there is room to roam off the decision.
ON the topside a move above the 50% at the 1.02168 would next target the 200 day MA at the 1.0248. Above that, 1.0276 is the topside trend line area from the hourly chart. The 100 day MA comes in at the 1.03197 level today. This too could be a key
ON the downside today,
- I will be watching the 1.0133-1.01506 for support. This is the “Correction Zone” as defined by the 38.2-50% of the last leg higher (see hourly chart). Holding this level keeps the bulls firmly in charge.
- A move below this level (and staying below) and next target becomes the 100 hour MA at the 1.0100 level. A test of this level will be key for the bulllish/bearish bias for the pair. The price has been above the 100 hour MA since June 12th. Look for buyers on the first test.
- Move below the 100 hour MA, and the 1.0062/66 (trend line support on the hourly and broken 38.2% on the daily) would be the next stop,
- Finally, the 200 hour MA at the 1.0013 (see hourly chart) would be the next key target. The price has not been below this MA since June 6th.
Like the other currency pairs today, much is dependent on the Fed, but for the AUDUSD, the market has been a little more bullish on “safe haven” flows into the pair. So on a move lower eye those support levels for clues.
