Conference Board leading and coincident indexes (indices) for August

  • Conference Board Leading Economic Index for Australia declined 0.4%
  • Coincident Economic Index increased 0.2% in August

From the Board's report today:

  • LEI has declined in five of the last six months
  • Six-month growth rate of the LEI has moved further into negative territory
  • CEI continues to increase moderately ... although the six-month growth rate has eased

Taken together, the downward trend in the LEI and the moderating growth rate of the CEI suggests downside risks to Australia's growth will persist in the near term.

LEI:

  • Between February and August 2015, the leading economic index decreased 1.2 percent (about a -2.5 percent annual rate)
  • Three of the seven components increased this month: yield spread, rural goods exports, and gross operating surplus
  • Negative contributors: share prices, building approvals, money supply & sales to inventories ratio

CEI:

  • Coincident economic index increased 0.8 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending August 2015
  • Three of the four components increased in August: household gross disposable income, employed persons, and industrial production
  • Retail trade was unchanged in August