So, I guess if you are fan of 2-month moving averages then its pretty much unchanged

Comments from WPAC:

  • The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from -0.37% in May to -0.14% in June.
  • While the growth rate of the Index remains below zero
  • Indicating a continuation of the below trend momentum seen over the last 14 months
  • It has improved significantly since the start of the year
  • The latest reading suggests growth over the next 3 to 9 months will be almost around trend

The main contributors to this growth improvement are:

  • commodity prices (+0.71ppts);
  • the sharemarket (+0.37ppts);
  • US industrial production (+0.21ppts);
  • and dwelling approvals (+0.16ppts).

Partially offsetting these improvements have been

  • a deterioration in aggregate monthly hours worked (-0.34ppts)
  • Both confidence Indexes (the Westpac- MI CSI expectations and Westpac-MI Unemployment Expectations Index) were largely unchanged over the last six months
  • The yield curve spread exerted a modest downward pressure over the period (-0.04ppts)