National Australia Bank Business Survey for December

business confidence falls again, this time to -2

  • prior 0

business conditions also down, to 3. 'Conditions' tends to be a more objective measure than confidence.

  • prior 4

NAB's key points from the Dec report (bolding is mine):

  • further evidence that activity stabilised in Q4
  • Conditions … another below average result and one that is well below the level seen in early 2018
  • Confidence ... the lowest read since mid-2013
  • While broadly stable, forward looking indicators do not imply a material improvement in the near term. Forward orders remain weak and capacity utilisation is just below average. Capex has pulled back over the year, and is now also below average.
  • A bright spot remains the employment index, which at +4 index points is above average and implies reasonable ongoing employment demand.
  • Notwithstanding the decline in confidence, the impact of the bushfires (which began in late December) is not yet apparent in these results. We will closely watch the results of the January survey for any indication of the impact of the fires on the business sector.
Australia business confidence and conditions

That bit from NAB about not reflecting bushfires.... yes, and you can add in the coronavirus …. January's report is going to be worse again for confidence (IMO)

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