Retails sales data from Australia has been lacklustre for many months

And, that continues today, down 0.1% m/m ... for a big miss

  • expected +0.3%
  • prior revised to -0.2%, from -0.1%

For the y/y, up 2.1%

Also, q/q retail sales excluding inflation (Q1): +0.1% ... also a big miss

  • expected +0.5%
  • prior revised to +0.7%, from +0.9%

Another terrible piece of retail sales data. Consumer confidence is not strong, which is not helping.

And yet, business conditions and business confidence is on the improve. A conundrum ...

Australian dollar lower on the data.

Australian Bureau of Statistics remarks:

  • In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in food retailing (-0.5 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-0.5 per cent), department stores (-0.6 per cent) and household goods retailing (-0.1 per cent). These falls were offset by rises in other retailing (1.1 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.4 per cent).
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in Queensland (-1.3 per cent), the Northern Territory (-1.8 per cent), South Australia (-0.1 per cent) and Tasmania (-0.2 per cent). There were rises in Victoria (0.4 per cent), New South Wales (0.1 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (0.3 per cent) and Western Australia (0.1 per cent).
  • The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent) in March 2017 following a 0.1 per cent rise in February 2017. Compared to March 2016, the trend estimate rose 2.5 per cent.

I don't normally post the regional variations in data, most ForexLive readers are outside of Australia and are not particularly fussed - it's the overall data that drives the currency (to the extent that data drives the currency).

I did add them in today just for interest - NSW and Vic., the two strongest economy states are doing OK. And the rise in WA ... I'd suggest its because of the low base. Australia is not in a recession, but areas of it are, particularly those parts seeing rapid declines from the end of the mining investment boom. the country is moving into the 'extraction' phase for mining, which requires much less employment in mining and the effects are flowing through.


Enough with the digression.

Terrible retail sales number ... again ...

If you have a job wondering about what the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to do next ... this is another risk of further rate cuts. I wouldn't say this is close, but this adds to the risk.