Results of the National Australia Bank Business Survey for June 2021

The twin headlines are:

  • Conditions 24 (expected 33, prior 36, revised from 37)
  • Confidence 11 (expected 23, prior 20)

Note that 'conditions' is a more objective measure, 'confidence' is a sentiment measure. Conditions had been expected to decline from the highest ever on record in May.

Longer run averages for both of these headlines are 6, so still a decent survey. The big but is that the Sydney lockdown will hit in next month's data, the survey dates for this just caught the beginning of the Sydney breakout.

Sub measures:

  • trading (sales) -10 pts +35 (still a high reading)
  • profitability -13 to +25
  • employment -8 to +17
  • forward orders -9 to +15
  • Capacity utilisation to 83.9%

Lockdowns in Melbourne and Sydney with the drag on the results (survey was conducted June 18-30, catching the start of the Sydney lockdown).

NAB remarks:

  • "The decline in conditions was broad-based across states but led by a significant decline in Victoria coming off the back of the lockdown that started in late May but was eased, in a series of steps, over June"
  • "The hope is that, as like previous episodes of shutdowns, that businesses bounce back on reopening"
  • "While, there is less fiscal support around, businesses conditions have been strong and hopefully the recovery continues."

NAB analyst with the hope four-letter word twice .....