Australia trade balance for January 2020 - eyes on any early impacts from the COVID-19 outbreak (on travel export services, for example).

AUD surplus of 5.21bn

  • expected AUD 4.8bn surplus
  • prior AUD 5.223bn revised to 5.376bn surplus

Exports -3% m/m (exports to China were already falling in H2 2019, fell again in Jan)

  • imports also -3% m/m

While the balance is little changed from the previous months drops for both exports and imports are a negative. This is January data, Feb and March are likely to be uglier given the virus spread and its economic impact.

Not to get too gloomy on this - exports have been a brighter spot for the Australian economy. There will be a virus-related impacts to come, down in the short term and then recovery as stimulus in China propmts demand.

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Background to this release is here: