More to come on this …. but stay tuned first for some Trump/Powell fisticuffs
OK, the WPC report - in summary comments on the result from the bank (bolding is mine, explained later, donw the bottom of the post):
- The Index growth rate has been consistently negative over the last six months, a clear signal that economic growth is likely to be remain below trend through the rest of 2019. Figures released earlier this month showed the slowdown over the second half of 2018 extended into the first quarter of 2019 with annual GDP growth slipping to 1.8%yr, well below 'trend' of 2.75%yr and the slowest pace since the GFC a decade ago.
- The Leading Index picked the slowdown well with a sharp deceleration in the Index growth rate beginning in the second quarter of last year, then swinging into negative late in the year, a reading consistent with the sub-trend annual growth now being reported.
- The May reading shows little change since then and points to this sub-trend pace continuing well into the second half of 2019. Westpac expects GDP growth to remain subdued at 2.2%yr for the full calendar year.
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For those who follow along my postings on this index, you'll not need reminding that this is one of the best for the Australian economy. Bolding above explains why.
