Westpac Leading Index for October gains 0.1%, the same as last month's result
The six month annualised deviation from trend growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index (which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future) fell 0.08%
- Was -0.30% (revised from -0.35%) in September
Comments from Westpac:
- Growth rate in the Leading Index remains below trend
- There has been some steady improvement in the last two months from the biggest negative deviation from trend in 3½ years in August to only slightly below trend in October
- Trend growth in the economy now assessed at around 2.75% today's read is broadly consistent with growth over that period running at about a 2.75% pace
- If achieved, that growth rate will represent a marked improvement on the 2.3% WPAC expect for 2015
- Critical source of that improvement is expected to come from a lift in household expenditure growth ... To achieve that lift in household expenditure we will need to see a lift in nominal income growth and a further moderation in the savings rate. Critical to that lift in nominal income growth will be a more stable year for Australia's terms of trade compared to 2014 and 2015 which have registered falls of around 10% a year
- The second key boost should come from net exports. In 2015 we expect that net exports will add 1.0 percentage point to GDP growth whereas in 2016 we are anticipating a lift of around 1.3 percentage points ... will be partly driven by a further contribution to net export growth from services
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AUD is barely moving:
