Australia - Leading index for September from Westpac reads up 0.1% m/m

  • prior was -0.3% m/m

Westpac report:

  • The six month annualised deviation from trend growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, increased from -1.14% in August to -0.35% in September.
  • Growth in the Leading Index has now been below trend for the last five months
  • WPAC expect GDP growth in 2016 of 2.75%
  • With trend growth in the economy now likely to be nearer 2.75% than 3% our forecast for GDP growth in 2016 of around trend growth looks a little vulnerable based on this current run of below trend growth rates for the Leading Index

WPAC expect:

  • a lift in consumer spending growth in 2016
  • a modest improvement in non-mining investment
  • An increased contribution from net exports
  • Positive factors will be partly offset by a slowdown in dwelling investment from 10.0% to 2.2% as the residential building boom reaches its peak


Yes, I just did post on the leading index for Australia, but no, you are not going through some deja vu experience

I posted on the leading and coincident indexes for August from the Conference Board ... and this post now is the leading index from Westpac. But ... don't get me started on how these are leading indices for August and September .... those are the past, not 'leading' But, there you go.

Maybe its something to do with today, 21 October 2015, which is Back to the Future Day

... from 1985