FOMC this week, and the BOJ! meanwhile, down in this cornoer of the pacific, Australian CPI for Q2

  • Official inflation data for Australia only comes out once a quarter
  • Q2 data is due on Wednesday, July 27 at 11.30am Sydney time, that's 0130GMT

I'll be back with more on the inflation data ahead of the release, but here are the expectations etc.:

The 'headline' result is the q/q:

  • expected is 0.4%

  • prior was -0.2%

For the y/y,

  • expected is 1.1%, prior 1.3%

For the 'trimmed mean' (which is the measure the RBA pays most heed to, it is the 'core' inflation figure where the RBA target band is 2 - 3%).

For the q/q:

  • expected 0.4%

  • prior 0.2%

For the y/y:

  • expected is 1.5%, prior 1.7%

Finally, there is the 'weighted median' CPI:

  • For q/q: expected is 0.4%, prior was 0.1%

  • For y/y: expected is 1.3%, prior was 1.4%

Westpac on what to expect (in brief):

  • The minutes of the July monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board confirmed the importance of next week's June Quarter inflation report.
  • The minutes clearly leave the door open for another rate cut in August. But this will depend upon the June quarter inflation report's estimate of underlying inflation. The upper bound below which a rate cut can be expected is likely to be 0.5%.
  • The tone of the minutes indicates that the Bank may be leaning toward another rate cut and may have a bit more flexibility on the inflation result than we had expected.

Also, from NAB:

  • NAB also note that the data is important for the next RBA decision
  • NAB forecasts the headline inflation rate at 0.7% q/q
  • And the underlying (i.e. trimmed mean) lower at 0.5% q/q
  • Those results would see the RBA on hold in August