New Zealand and Australian data due today

Orderboard is here

What to expect .... Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA):

  • CBA sees the medium-term outlook for a lower AUD/USD, but for the AUD to perform better against crosses
  • Cites expected further gains for the US dollar as the Federal Reserve gets its rate-hike cycle underway
  • Cites also the downward trend in commodity prices

What to expect .... Westpac (strategist Sean Callow):

  • On the day AUD/USD support at 0.7220 should hold and with a focus on inbound M&A flows to Australia and ongoing debate over how much USD will benefit from a rate hike next month, the pair may yet spend some time above 0.73 in the next week before resuming its downtrend into year-end

Australia's private capital expenditure report ...

  • the 4th estimate of investment plans for 2015/16, with the survey conducted from Oct to early Nov. ... This week RBA governor Stevens argued that "prospects for firmer conditions in the non-mining economy are improving". If so, then we should see at least a "less weak" survey today. There is plenty of room for surprise, from say $111bn on the bearish side to $117bn for a similar reading to the previous survey and $123bn for an upside surprise
  • The market median forecast of $120bn seems reasonable, with mining investment plans still steeply negative but services to improve from -6% y/y in the previous survey. This would reinforce the RBA's wary optimism at Tuesday's meeting.