Preview of the Australian employment data for March, due at 0130GMT on 16 April 2015
There's a bit of chatter around about tomorrow's employment data due from Australia. I'll be back with more tomorrow, but here are some early thoughts on it.
The Bloomberg consensus expectation is for a gain of 15K (February was +15.6K)
- Unemployment rate is seen at 6.3% (no change from the prior)
NAB are bang on consensus, looking for +15K & 6.3% unemployment
- They say the labour market has "been relatively stable in recent months (the unemployment rate has been steady at 6¼% for six months)"
- They are not anticipating any material change to the participation rate that might have flowed from discouraged worker effects
- Instead, "a somewhat better tone overall of labour market reports should support labour market participation"
- Expect an unchanged participation rate of 64.6%
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Westpac are more optimistic, looking for a +20K on employment change, but on consensus at 6.3% unemployment forecast
- They add, on hours worked: "rose 0.8% in the month following a 0.7% rise in January ... So far in 2015 hours worked have seen a meaningful lift and are now growing at a 1.8% annual pace
- Also, "the leading indicators have been pointing to a moderation in the pace of employment growth in early 2015. Our 20k forecast will see the annual rate drop to 1.1%yr"
- We are expecting a correction in the participation rate back to 64.7% as, at least for now, the ageing population effect appears to have paused. This should result in a 27k jump in the labour force hence our forecast for flat unemployment rate (6.30% compared to 6.25% in Jan).
