Some brief comments on the Australian employment report (data etc. from earlier is here)
ANZ:
- The slowing in employment growth likely reflects some statistical payback from the outsized gains recorded at the end of 2015
- Underlying conditions in the labour market remain relatively healthy and will be sufficient to keep the RBA on the sidelines for the time being
CBA:
- Net, net I would say it is a positive number in terms of the economic outlook
- Unemployment rate is trending lower ... a pretty powerful signal about the economy
Citi:
- It could be that the time to find a job has increased and/or that new jobs are coming with lower pay and/or pay growth prospects. If so, people could be interpreting these developments as signs of a weaker labour market.
JPM:
- The participation rate has been moving higher for some time so for it to flick lower today is a little bit odd
- We aren't putting too much emphasis on that and we do think we'll see a recovery in the participation rate going forward
RBC:
- The data looks okay
- Looks like the unemployment rate has shifted to a slightly lower range than most of 2014 and 2015
- We are still in the camp of two rate cuts in the second half of the year, but you'd need unemployment ticking a bit higher than 5.8%
