The Australian employment report for October is a huge beat on expectations
And, unsurprisingly, the huge positive result is being questioned
One of the points I hear being raised is the Australian Bureau of Statistics has, for this result today, made a change in advising how to interpret the figures.
That is, to look at the 'trend' data, rather than the 'seasonally adjusted' data.
So, just for clarity, this is not a change today from the ABS, not at all.
For example, in September 2014 the ABS was telling us all to look at the 'trend' ... a point I have made on numerous occasions since.
I'll reprint what the Australian Bureau of Statistics said of the August 2014 figures (bolding is mine):
- The ABS is aware that the seasonally adjusted increase in employment in August 2014, particularly part-time employment, was unusually strong and, as a result, has extensively validated the questionnaire, processes and systems associated with the estimates. Further details are included in the publication.
- The ABS encourages the use of the trend series which smooths the seasonally adjusted series and can provide a better basis for analysing the underlying behaviour of the series.
Here's the link to the post of more than a year ago where that is from, if you want to see for yourself.
The ABS urging us to look at the trend is, as you see, not a new development. At all. There may be reasons to question today's report, but the ABS all of a sudden telling us to look at the 'trend' isn't one of them.
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Enough with what's more than year old news ... here's a look at the graphs from the Australian Bureau of Statistics today:
Check out the 'trend' and make up your own mind.
