The Australian November Employment data is here

I posted Westpac's analysis here



  • Numbers are exaggerated by sample rotation
  • Definitely the numbers are overstated but there's still some better results than what the market had anticipated


  • You can't ignore these numbers forever
  • They are strong, unemployment is low and is running ahead of most other indicators on the labour market
  • Today's jobs report does not help our Q1 RBA rate cut forecast argument

TD Securities :

  • Skeptical that a sub-trend economy with shrinking domestic demand is generating jobs at a pace this year that is literally multiples of recent years
  • All the RBA will take away from this report is firmer employment growth and a lower unemployment rate
  • Everything else should be taken with a large grain of salt


  • October number as almost too good to be true ... today's number and it blows it out of the water even more
  • Two very, very strong back to back months and it's very difficult to pin any drivers down because economic growth is still pretty soft
  • The firms are hiring, but I don't know if the pace they're hiring at is at multi-year records
  • RBA (will) see how the trend settles out and what the data does in the next one or two quarters


  • Given that 'normal' job growth is around 15,000 a month, it is reasonable to still expect some consolidation in coming months
  • If it doesn't come, then a boom has seemingly crept up on us - which will get the policymakers scurrying to their models to find out what is going on
  • Many jobs are being created in sectors less affected by the pace of the economy and more by demographics and other external factors, such as in healthcare, social services and education.
  • The Reserve Bank won't be cutting rates any time soon. But rate hikes also still seem some way off.

Via Fairfax