Flash data for retail sales is expected to show an improvement from June as the economy continued to reopen, and … the ABS survey was conducted prior to Australia's second largest city (Melbourne) being plunged back into an even harsher lock down.
Thus, any 'good' result is likely to be discounted as August data will almost certainly fall back again.
ANZ's preview with a little more:
- spending data suggests retail was broadly stable in July, as employment gains and more open economies stimulated retail spending, but the spending to facilitate working-from-home started to soften.
- Retail growth is unlikely to extend into August. Lockdowns in Victoria are likely to decrease spare household income, particularly as the reduction in JobKeeper and expiry of deferred mortgage payments loom. Victorians are likely to be already set up for work and play at home, reducing the likelihood of a repeat in the spike in household goods spending that offset the weakness in dining/fashion spending during the first lockdown.
Data is due at 0130GMT. There is no expectations survey for the prelim data release.
