Lower surplus than expected

The Australian trade balance for October came in much lower than expectations at A$105M vs an estimate of A$1400M.

  • exports fell 3% from last month
  • imports rose 2% from last month
  • September trade balance revised to A$1600M from A$1750M
The AUDUSD has moved lower on the back of the miss and in the process moved to test the key swing lows going back to November 22 at 0.75517 to 0.7556. The low reached 0.75526 so far. A break below will look toward the November lows at 0.7535 and 0.7531.

Taking a broader view from the daily chart below, the lows from November were near lows from June (see daily chart below) and the 61.8% of the move up from the December 2016 low. That comes in at 0.7528.