All good down under

All good down under

Yesterday's July Australian employment data was excellent last night as reported by Eamonn:

Employment Change +41.1K - huge beat

  • expected +14.0K, prior +0.5K
  • Unemployment Rate 5.2%
  • expected 5.2%, prior 5.2%

Full Time Employment Change 34.5K

  • prior +21.1K

Part Time Employment Change 6.7K

  • prior +20.6K

Participation Rate 66.1%

  • expected 66.0%, prior was 66.0%

One fly in the ointment was helpfully pointed out by Eamonn:

The headline unemployment rate remained unchanged while the 'trend' rate ticked up by 0.1% - the 'trend' employment data is usually thought to be a more reliable indicator than the headline number and its likely the result today will do nothing to dissuade the RBA from its easing bias (although monitoring mode will persist until more data comes in for the months ahead after two consecutive cuts in June and July).

The AUD liked the data and there was some shifts in expected easing bias for the RBA. We know that the RBA was keen on the Labour data, so this pushes them to a more neutral footing than they might otherwise have been. At least a alight pause before continuing to think about easing. At the very least I certainly think this keeps a widening gap between the RBA and the RBNZ, as I have pointed out previously, as well as the potential for a stronger AUD economy than AUD price would otherwise indicate. See here.

I am still expecting AUD/NZD buyers on the dips