Let's skip straight to bank's views for the currency. The directional view is 'bearish', so you know what to expect ...

  • We see the AUD falling gradually against the USD in 2017
  • Although improving domestic fundamentals and a less dovish RBA should provide support for the AUD, external factors are likely less favourable
  • China's plans to curb property speculation and informal sector credit growth, and to run a less easy monetary policy, mean that the support for commodities could wane
  • We recommend short AUDNZD and long GBPAUD trades.

Pretty decent summary IMO. But, a little more on the economy and RBA outlook:

  • We think slow growth in household income and wages continue to point to restraint at the RBA, despite the recent run-up in commodity prices and the large trade surpluses
  • We still expect the RBA to keep rates on hold through 2017, but believe the bank is becoming more confident around its growth projections. which may pave the way for rate hikes in Q2 18