A flurry of key UK data is to be released throughout the week
While today may be all about Turkey, pound traders will have their eyes set on events that will take place later in the week.
Tuesday, 14/8
- June average weekly earnings
- June unemployment rate
- July jobless claims change
Wednesday, 15/8
- July CPI figures
- July PPI figures
Thursday, 16/8
- July retail sales data
Although the figures here aren't going to contribute to any pricing of a BOE rate hike for the rest of the year, they're still vital economic data points for the pound - more so when sentiment is already rather fragile.
The major focus right now may be on Brexit but these will be accompaniments for traders to take note of in trading this week.
The first key data is the jobs report tomorrow and the figures there are expected to hold steady to that of June. Wages are expected to hold steady and so is the unemployment rate. Productivity remains an issue for the UK economy and that is making it difficult for real wages to rise, so the data here will be interpreted in the sense as to how it will continue to keep a stranglehold on UK households and their spending abilities relative to inflation.
The second key data is the inflation report on Wednesday. Headline inflation is expected to tick higher to 2.5% while core inflation is expected to remain steady at 1.9%. We know the BOE isn't going to hike anymore this year so once again it's all about how inflation will continue to push down household consumption in the UK. However, a tick higher in the core inflation figure to around 2% to 3% would be the sweet spot for the BOE and that will be a pound positive if it happens.
The final key data on the week is the retail sales report on Thursday. Core retail sales is expected to remain robust at 2.8% y/y as economists anticipate that the summer heat will continue to provide the right momentum for spending. However, Visa data earlier today showed that may not be the case so that is something to consider ahead of the data release here. Although Visa figures represent a small proportion of the overall pattern, it's something to keep at the back of your minds ahead of the overall figures on Thursday.
