A few snippets from Barclays on what they see the impact of a no deal Brexit

  • GBP fall
  • trade barriers
  • rate cuts from the Bank of England
  • a housing market slowdown
  • a shallow recession
  • negative consumer sentiment
  • and additional fiscal stimulus

Given this is Forexlive, I'll bypass the other consequences to for a little more on GBP:

  • estimated (late July) … cumulative move in trade-weighted GBP would be 4-8% in a no-deal exit
  • Since then, the currency has depreciated around 3%
  • If we assume the top end of the 4-8% range, we therefore need to factor in an additional 5% FX depreciation