Barclays assess Brexit impacts: GBP, house prices to fall, inflation to rise and a recession

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

A few snippets from Barclays on what they see the impact of a no deal Brexit 

  • GBP fall
  • trade barriers
  • rate cuts from the Bank of England
  • a housing market slowdown
  • a shallow recession
  • negative consumer sentiment
  • and additional fiscal stimulus
Given this is Forexlive, I'll bypass the other consequences to for a little more on GBP:
  • estimated (late July) … cumulative move in trade-weighted GBP would be 4-8% in a no-deal exit
  • Since then, the currency has depreciated around 3%
  • If we assume the top end of the 4-8% range, we therefore need to factor in an additional 5% FX depreciation



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