Canadian retail sales is next on the shopping list
As the retail sales data switches from this;
UK
To this;
Canada
We get to see if the Canadians have a spare few loonies to splash about
Year on year sales dropped to 1.7% in April from highs of 6.3% mid-2014. Month over month sales highlight the volatility that we can get from this data point. They dipped 0.1% last month
Canadian retail sales
Adam's been moaning about the heat recently so we can expect that sales of animal furs will be down this month
Taking a more serious line, if the BOC is worried about any weakness in the economy then retail sales is one place it's likely to show up. While Poloz remarked that it was unlikely that the BOC will cut again, the focus is going to ramp up on the Canadian data. If it starts tanking then the market will start to think about another cut.
I wouldn't say retail sales will bring a big sustained move in the currency but we may see a larger reaction than normal from the economy watchers
My analysis of USDCAD from earlier still stands for this report and any wild variations to expectations may bring those close levels into play
For today the market is expecting headline sales in at 0.5% vs -0.1% prior m/m and ex-autos at 0.8% vs -0.6% prior m/m
