By Akhil Shah

OTTAWA (MNI) – The Canadian jobs market is expected to carry
forward its sluggish second-half growth, by adding 10,000 jobs in
November in Friday’s Statistics Canada’ monthly report.

Economists surveyed by Market News International centered their
expectations on a median expectation of a gain of 10,000 jobs, part of a
second-half slowdown after a surging first half in which the economy
added 309,000 jobs. The economy added only 20,100 jobs in the third
quarter and 3,000 jobs in October.

By mid-year, Canada had already recovered the 417,000 jobs lost
during the 2008-2009 recession, and the slower growth now expands the
recovery. Analysts, however, do cite concerns that many of the new jobs
are in part-time rather than full-time work.

A recent report by Diane Galarneau at Statistics Canada says “since
1997, contract employment has been the main source of growth in
temporary work.”

“Hiring won’t keep pace with the growth in the potential work
force, and will therefore translate into an 8.0% unemployment rate,”
wrote Emanuella Enanajor, an economist at the Canadian Imperial Bank of
Commerce.

This view point is also in line with the Help-Wanted index, a
survey conducted by the Conference Board of Canada, to indicate the
number of new jobs advertised online. The survey showed the index
declined 0.45 point to 100.5 in October, representing the third decline
in four months. This suggests the fast pace of jobs seen during the
early part of recovery is over for now. The survey also expects to see
weak job growth in the months ahead.

The Conference Board also constructs an indicator of labor market
tightness. This indicator represents the ratio of the number of
unemployed individuals to the number of available jobs wanted ads posted
online. The indicator increased in October, rising to 2.9 from 2.83,
showing an increase in the number of unemployed individuals per job
posted online.

The autumn business outlook survey of the Bank of Canada reports
that approximately 39% of the firms surveyed will increase employment
over the next 12 months. This marks a decline in the balance of opinion
from the summer survey but continues to remain positive.

Over the next three-four months, the Canadian Federation of
Independent Business (CFIB) sees only 12% of small and medium
enterprises business owners hiring full-time staff, while 15% are
expecting to downsize. The remaining 73% are projected to remain at the
current level, in November’s small and medium enterprises business
outlook survey.

Derek Burleton, vice president and deputy chief economist at the
Toronto Dominion Bank, anticipates employment will rise by 20,000 and
the unemployment rate will remain at 7.9% in November. “We have had
virtually no job growth the last couple of months; we felt the last few
months had understated the true degree of momentum in the employment
market, and we should have a bit of a rebound,” Burleton said.

The gains are expected to be spread out evenly but should favor the
“mini renaissance in housing activity caused by low mortgage rates, that
should help pockets of the large housing market,” Burleton added.
“Output growth has picked up in the last few quarters but we have not
seen the rebound in the manufacturing sector, so should see some modest
growth in this sector,” Burleton said.

“Going forward, we expect to see better growth and consumers to
spend at a moderate rate, pushing the economy to grow by 2.0% to 2.5% in
the next few quarters,” Burleton said. “We expect the Bank of Canada to
hold its key interest rate at 1.0% till the third quarter of next year,”
Burleton said.

— Akhil Shah is a Need to Know News Reporter in Ottawa

** Market News International Ottawa **

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