Canada December employment report due Friday - preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

The Bloomberg survey has the December net change for employment at +2K

  • the November (i.e. prior was a huge upside surprise at +79.5K)
Unemployment
  • expected 6.0%
  • prior 5.9%
Full time
  • prior +29.6K
Part time
  • prior +49.9K
Participation rate
  • prior 65.7%
The data is due at 1330 GMT on Friday 5 January 2018

Although Bloomberg does not provide result for average weekly earnings expectations, other reports I have seen suggest +2.9% y/y (November was +2.8%)

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Last month's headline 79,500 gain was far in excess of expectations (of +10K) and is likely an outlier. Some 'give back' is expected this month, as can be seen in the very subdued 'expected' (+2K only).

The jobs market was broadly better throughout 2017, but as is the case in many other countries, wage growth is still a touch on the slow side, albeit substantially improving recently (from around +0.7% y/y back in April to the +2.8% y/y result in November). The Bank of Canada is looking for +3%, so there is just a little way to go.


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