The first look at Canadian Q3 GDP
Q2 was 2.9%
Q1 was 1.4%
September GDP -0.1% vs +0.1% expected (first decline since Jan)
August GDP unrevised at +0.1%
Sept GDP y/y 2.1% vs 2.3% expected
Aug GDP y/y 2.5% (revised to 2.4%)
Details
Consumption grew at slowest pace in more than two years at 1.2% annualized
Domestic demand at weakest in a year
Non-residential capital spending -7.1% annualized pace, first decline since 2016
Residential investment -5.9% annualized, in third straight decline
If you're optimistic, the drop in investment is worry about NAFTA in Q3. If you're pessimistic, investment is dropping because the economy is slowing. Looking to Q4, the drop in oil prices certainly isn't going to reverse the trend.
Investment cut 1.27 pp from growth while inventories trimmed another 1.29 pp. Consumption added 0.68 pp while trade added 3.1 pp.
