Chinese markets reopen after the lunar new year holiday
The USD/CNY mid point setting today will be the first since February 5. Last week we saw general USD weakness pretty much across the board, and the USD/CNH (CNH is the 'offshore' yuan, where trading continued while CNY trade was closed) was no exception.
USD/CNH is very much the imperfect proxy for USD/CNY, so while the move lower will give us an idea of the direction of the USD/CNY mid-point fixing today, its not something to hang your hat on for the actual level.
February 5th's mid point was set at 6.5314. Divining the mid point fix for the session hasn't become much easier since the PBOC told us they were becoming more transparent. Its still a policy decision each day, rather than something that can be modeled with mathematical precision (just ask the modellers how they've been doing so far this year).
The mid-point setting will come just after 0115GMT.
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There is plenty of data due from China today also.
0200GMT, or thereabouts (we sometimes see it a little earlier, and sometimes a little later) - trade balance:
China trade balance for January:
- expected is +$60.6bn, prior was $60.06bn
Exports:
- expected is -1.8%, prior was -1.4%
Imports:
- expected is -3.6%, prior was -7.6%
We will likely get the trade balance in yuan terms prior to the USD terms release:
Trade balance:
- expected is +389.01bn, prior was 382.05bn
Exports:
- expected is +3.6%, prior was +2.3%
Imports:
- expected is +1.8%, prior was -4.0%
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About a millisecond after the trade balance data we'll get the "this data is ****" response. As normal.
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A word on the timing of the data - I am expecting it today, but I will not be surprised if it turns out not being released. I'll try to get more certainty and BRB.
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Also expected today (note, some of the expectations have been updated) ...
- January new yuan loans, expected is 1900bn CNY, prior was 597.8bn
- Aggregate financing RMB for January, expected is 2200.0bn, prior was 1820.0bn
- Money supply M0 (Jan) y/y: expected is 10.6%, prior was 4.9%
- Money supply M1 (Jan) y/y: expected is 14.7%, prior was 15.2%
- Money supply M2 (Jan) y/y: expected is 13.5%, prior was 13.3%
I haven't a time for this at all.
