China Q3 GDP and other data out earlier:
- Comments from China Stats Bureau on GDP release
- China September data: industrial production, retail sales & fixed asset investment
- China Q3 GDP 6.9% y/y
Some comments from around the place (via Reuters):
ZHANG YIPING, ECONOMIST, CHINA MERCHANT SECURITIES, SHENZHEN
- The sluggish real estate investment is an important factor for the low GDP and now it will certainly raise more concerns on this industry
- I think the government will boost the infrastructure industry to offset the impact of the weak real estate investment
- expect GDP will rebound in the fourth quarter and manage to remain at 7 percent for the whole year
ZHOU HAO, SENIOR ECONOMIST AT COMMERZBANK IN SINGAPORE
- Property investment failed to have a dramatic recovery while the retail sales were the only highlight
- Government will probably lower the full-year growth target
- I am expecting to see one interest rate cut and one to two reductions in RRR in the fourth quarter
OLIVER BARRON, CHINA POLICY RESEARCHER, NSBO, BEIJING
- GDP beat is surprising
- Monthly FAI and industrial production figures slowed considerably, and much faster than expected
- Retail sales is holding up the data
- I'm quite worried that real estate FAI fell 3.1 percent despite the improvement in funding
- real estate investment is weak will hinder Q4 economic recovery
- Nominal GDP slowed to 6.6 percent from 6.9 percent in the first half, consistent with the slowdown in monthly figures and persistent deflation
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Macquarie (via Bloomberg):
- September industrial production worse than expected
- Shows China needs more easing
- Pressure on economic growth, especially in 2016
- GDP as expected, though overall economic data in 3Q relatively weak
- Sees RRR cut and more infrastructure spending in coming weeks
