China trade balance for September: CNY 376.2bn (expected CNY 292.4bn!)

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Trade balance for September, yuan denominated

China trade balance: 376.2bn CNY surplus

  • expected CNY 292.4bn
  • prior was CNY 368.03bn 

Exports -1.1% y/y:

  • expected is -7.4%, prior was --6.1%

Imports -17.7% y/y:

  • expected is -16.5%, prior was -14.3%

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We'll get the USD terms soon enough, the CNY terms come out well before.

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Ugly imports, exports not even close to as bad as expected.

Gives a much higher than expected trade surplus.

The market will take heart from that beat on exports. Be nice if imports were better too though, that would indicate more domestic economic strength. As it is .... that import decline is horrible.

So, a bit of a mix in this data.

more to come

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Comments from China Customs spokesman:

  • Foreign trade growth still facing difficulties
  • China economy faces relatively large downward pressure

Do this spokesman's bosses know he is being so honest on the Chinese economy? Brave soul he is.

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Added ...

  • Rising labour costs, yuan appreciation hurt exporters competitiveness in the January-September period
  • Yuan devaluation is positive for China exports, expect Q4 trade to be stronger than Q3
  • Expect export growth to improve in Q4, expect decline in imports to ease in Q4
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