Citi base case is bullish yuan, expect US-China trade truce at G20

Citi looks for the yuan to gain modestly after the G-20 summit

• expect the US to delay tariffs
• and for trade talks to restart
• CNH to gain to 6.83, further if USD weakens more

Alternatively:

• If US hikes tariffs but keeps negotiating, offshore yuan to 6.95
• 50% chance of above 7