We get Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes for the September meeting released today at 0130gmt
I posted a few quick thoughts here earlier: Economic data from Australia, and RBA Minutes due today
From CitiFX (currency strategist Todd Elmer):
- Says the RBA Minutes "are likely to reinforce the hawkish tone of the statement" (he is referring to the Statement from Governor Stevens that accompanied the September decision
- Citi likes AUD/USD long
More:
- "Market expectations for Fed tightening have been cut back in recent days
- Asset market volatility stemming from developments in China has subsided somewhat
- Speculation on possible dovish signals from the BoJ has begun to build
- "These developments are likely to support market sentiment"
Looking ahead to Friday (when Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens is due to appear before parliament's House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics):
- Says to expect a hawkish Stevens
- Stevens "should undercut any lingering expectation that the RBA will reverse on recent hawkishness in the wake of the softer-than-expected GDP"
- "With investors still discounting some risk for near-term RBA easing, there should be scope for AUD-positive rises in rate expectations"
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I think Elmer is overstating Stevens' 'hawkish' ness. I agree the communications from the RBA have become less dovish, but I think it's a stretch to describe them as hawkish. The RBA is in 'wait and see' mode as they assess incoming data in response to this year's easings.
