Citi oil analysis, main points:
- likely price rebound to continue over the next 18 months
- OPEC+ efforts to curb supplies to persist
- near-term loss of US shale oil
Forecasts:
Brent crude futures averaging $48/b in Q4 of this year
- average $61/b during Q4 2021
Further out:
- "We're relatively bullish the market going into 2022 because we see relatively strong discipline on the OPEC+ side and we see a postponement of projects and we see lost oil in the world, particularly in North America"
- Brent futures averaging $59/b in 2022
- $55/b in 2023
---
Separately from Citi:
- Sees global oil demand coninuing to rise as lockdowns ease
- But won't reach 2019 levels before late 2021
- inventories will be showing a strong draw by mid-July