A preview for the NZD traders - New Zealand employment report for Q2 is coming up

I popped up a bank preview for it yesterday, here:

What's coming (the 'headlines' are bolded):

  • Unemployment rate: expected is 4.4%, prior was 4.4%
  • Employment change q/q: expected 0.4%, prior was 0.6%
  • Employment change y/y: expected 3.6%, prior was 3.1%
  • Participation rate: expected 70.8%, prior was 70.8%
  • Average hourly earnings: expected 1.0%, prior was 1.1%
  • Private wages including overtime: expected 0.6%, prior was 0.3%
  • Private wages excluding overtime: expected 0.%, prior was 0.3%

Here are more expectations (bolding mine):

ANZ:

  • The labour market is expected to have stabilised in the June quarter, with the unemployment rate flat at a low level. Wage inflation is expected to have been strong, boosted by the higher minimum wage, while the underlying wage pulse remains modest. Wage and price inflation look set to increase further from here, but transitory cost-push factors are at play.
  • In this environment, we expect the RBNZ will remain cautious. They will be focused on trend inflation, which is expected to continue increasing only gradually.

Westpac is expecting a drop in employment on the quarter:

  • New Zealand's labour market has tightened over recent years. But slowing economic growth is likely to put a dampener on the pace of improvement

WPAC on wages:

  • the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) measure of average hourly earnings has accelerated in the last year, and we expect a further pickup this time. But this measure slowed sharply a year ago, and it's not clear whether this rebound will be sustained