US retail sales is up at 12.30 GMT
Adam has the main ForexLive preview of the US retail sales numbers so I've looked at what other data points might give us a clue of what's to come
For people to spend they must feel confident. That comes through having jobs and job security, getting paid a decent amount and feeling good about the economy and their own fortunes. If all the ducks line up then people loosen up the wallets
On the confidence front things have been looking very good. The Conference board's index is still running at the highs and the Michigan survey has been doing equally well (September excluded)
US consumer confidence & Michigan survey
On the money front, incomes have been rising and that has kept spending up
The sharp drop and worries seen in the Sep Michigan number should be ignored for this report but keep it in mind for next month. For now, the US consumer looks to be reasonably happy and that should be reflected in retail sales. If sales follow the sentiment then perhaps the expected numbers are a little on the low side. A decent beat might therefore catch the market on the wrong foot
It all goes into the Fed mixing bowl so the trade is more whether the numbers increase or decrease the chances of the Fed acting
