JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and others all lowered third quarter GDP estimates after today’s durable goods report. The DJ consensus has slipped to 1.7% from 1.8%.
The advanced number will be released tomorrow and other new agencies still have the consensus at 1.8% but the market will have priced in 1.6-1.7%.
Q1 growth was 2.0% and Q2 was at 1.3%.
- Back in July, the consensus estimate for Q3 growth was 2.2%.
- In March, the Fed was forecasting 2.8-3.2% GDP
The current consensus for Q4 is 1.9% but the poor business investment numbers are a downside risk. At this point, full-year 2012 growth is looking like 1.8%.