Mike reported the UK Q2 GDP first reading QQ 0.3% as expected back in July

Today it's the second guess estimate

  • Due at 0830GMT
  • Consensus expectations at for the 0.3% q/q & 1.7% y/y to remain unchanged

Previews ...

Barclays:

  • We expect GDP to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q as consumption slows (0.3%q/q after 0.4%q/q).
  • Contraction in investment (-0.2%q/q) could be offset by a positive contribution of trade while we expect inventories to be neutral.

HSBC:

  • The ONS's initial estimate showed GDP growing by 0.3% q-o-q in Q1 - a slight uptick from Q1's 0.2%.
  • Subsequent updates to the Q2 industrial production and construction numbers have been minor so we do not expect GDP to be revised in the second estimate.
  • The forthcoming release will contain the first estimates of Q2 expenditure. The monthly goods trade numbers suggest that net trade might make a positive growth contribution, while consumer spending is likely to be weak, given the squeeze from higher inflation.
  • The ONS's preliminary GDP print embodied an initial estimate for June services growth of 0.3% m-o-m. That helped deliver Q2 services growth of a respectable 0.5% q-o-q. We see no reason to aim off these estimates for the full IoS data release.
  • A more granular breakdown of the data might offer insights, particularly with regard to momentum going into Q3.

Lloyds:

  • The second reading of Q2 UK GDP growth (Thu) is expected to be unchanged from the initial estimate of 0.3%.
  • Surprises to June data for construction and industrial production, compared to the 'guestimates' in the first reading, were largely offsetting. However, June services may still spring a surprise.
  • This second estimate will also contain the first readings of expenditure growth for the quarter.
  • Consumer spending is likely to have remained the main driver of activity, while stronger net trade growth may have contributed to the modest acceleration in GDP growth compared to Q1.