A look at the December 2020 non-farm payrolls report:
- Consensus estimate +50K
- Private +13K
- November +245K
- Highest estimate +250k (Evercore ISI)
- Lowest estimate -400K (Berliner Sparkasse)
- Average estimate +39K
- Standard deviation +104K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 6.8%
- Participation rate consensus +61.5%
- Prior underemployment U6 prior 12.0%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.5% y/y vs 4.4% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.2% vs +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.8 vs 34.8 prior
Here's the December jobs story so far
- ADP -123K vs +75K expected
- ISM services employment 48.2 vs 51.5 prior
- ISM manufacturing employment 51.5 vs 48.6 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 806K vs 787K in November
- Conference Board help wanted online demand for hiring not yet released
- Challenger Job Cuts 77K vs 65K prior
I can't see this report mattering for markets. If it's soft, the market will disregard it because of the stimulus that was passed afterwards. If it's strong, it's a bonus but it doesn't change much.
Within the numbers, there may start to be some focus on average wages but those are being skewed by shutdowns and the current composition of the workforce.
