I had the original info posted on Friday, but there is some updated info available now:
They say:
- A much lower AUD should be considered a “base case”, not a “tail risk” event
- They say the forecast is dependent on the path of the RBA and the Federal Reserve
- Their view is the RBA is on hold up to 1H of 2016
- And that the Fed. will start increasing the Fed funds rate around mid-2015
- Current end-2015 forecast for AUD/USD remains at 0.75
- But risks are skewed on the downside
- For the the near-term, however, they see upside risk, saying the labor market is likely to strengthen
