The latest in our series of risk event previews turns attention to the ECB decision and presser at 11.45 and 12.30 GMT today

So here we are, on a Wednesday and in the middle of the month and it's all feeling a little strange still even though we're slowly getting used to the new-ish ECB 6-weekly meeting show

So what can we expect from today's offering from Draghi &Co ?

Well, not too much really but we should always expect the unexpected and that will explain, as much as the US retail sales data, why we've been up and down like the proverbial in the past 24 hours

Expect interest rates and QE plans to remain unchanged with the usual Draghi smooth tones at the presser. Lower oil prices and subdued private sector lending growth will keep downward pressure on inflation and global risk will be cited too, but he will be upbeat on the effects of QE so far

Various reports recently of the ECB even starting to consider tapering given the positive recent data and Yves Mersch last week suggesting a quicker exit on a faster than expected return to inflation target, but that's surely far too early a call.

Expect Draghi to re-iterate that the QE programme will continue as scheduled and that the ECB will not find it difficult to find enough bonds to buy, and cite its March success with purchases to meet its EUR60bln made up of €47bln in govt bonds and the rest in ABS and covered bonds

He might touch on the option of lowering the -0.2% lower limit but unless that move appears to be imminent then I think the possibility is factored in

A weaker euro is essential to Dragihi's plans and I can't seen him wanting to stop what he's started yet so expect any potential bullish comments to be countered by a leveller

We will see plenty of knee-jerk price action but I don't think we see anything that will change the current trend lower. The shorter-term market has seen a good little clear-out in the past 24 hours and that does lend itself to a more balanced market going into the meeting today

But, as always,trade what you see. Ours is not to reason why, ours is just to buy low/sell high

May your trading be profitable one and all