German and Spanish inflation data for March due today
The dollar is keeping more mixed on the day as it holds a slight advance against the yen but is seen trailing against commodity currencies, somewhat similar to yesterday.
The euro is staying pressured as EUR/USD keeps below 1.1800 but it showed some fight against the pound, with EUR/GBP moving off one-year lows near 0.8500 to 0.8540.
Higher Treasury yields and a steeper curve to start the week is helping to keep yen pairs underpinned, with 10-year yields now rising another 3.4 bps to 1.742%.
The market is still adjusting to developments in the bond market and also working with sentiment from the Archegos Capital liquidation as well as month-end and quarter-end rebalancing flows so far this week.
German and Spanish inflation data are among the highlights in Europe today but it shouldn't do much to distract from the recent market focus.
Just be mindful that with NFP later this week falling on the Easter break, we might get some positioning moves on Thursday and potentially swingy moves in FX and bonds (half-day for Treasuries) amid thinner liquidity conditions on Friday.
0600 GMT - Germany February import price index
Prior release can be found here. A lagging and proxy indicator of inflation pressures in the German economy. A minor data point.
0645 GMT - France March consumer confidence
Prior release can be found here. French consumer morale is expected to keep little change with economic conditions also not much different from February.
0700 GMT - Switzerland March KOF leading indicator index
Prior release can be found here. The data measures the future trends of overall economic activity in the Swiss economy. Low-tier data.
0700 GMT - Spain March preliminary CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. Spanish inflation is expected to bounce back after a drop in February as the more volatile and swingy nature of price pressures should become more prevalent in the months to follow. In any case, it is not going to change the ECB perception on the inflation outlook or their current policy stance.
0900 GMT - Eurozone March final consumer confidence
0900 GMT - Eurozone March economic, industrial, services confidence
Prior release can be found here. Economic confidence in the euro area is expected to show some improvement still but the overall outlook is still rather cloudy amid the worsening virus situation and slow vaccine rollout.
1200 GMT - Germany March preliminary CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. German inflation is expected to creep higher with an estimated reading of +1.7% y/y, up from the +1.3% y/y reading in February. Again, the special factors outlined here are part of the story - adding to the base effect adjustments among other things, which is also seen elsewhere across the region/globe. Regardless, don't expect these jumps to pressure the ECB into moving whatsoever.
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
